Excitable
During the course of the last 4-5 days, I have read posts on two different forums and two different mailing lists about a sudden increase in bicycle sales in London since the tragic events of last week. Can I just take a minute to ask why everybody is getting so excited about this? For one thing, these are hardly the circumstances under which I'd be gloating about increased bicycle sales or anything else. For another, has anybody considered the possibility that this is all just a knee-jerk reaction?
Think about this, for the most part, these are people who have probably never ridden a bicycle in their lives (or at least not for a very long time). Perhaps there is a reason they have not done so, and have preferred to use the public transport system in the past. While the prospect of being attacked while riding a bus is in everybody's mind at the moment, it should be remembered that the overall risk of this happening on any given journey is actually a very small one. In short, these are the people who were happy to take the much larger risk of being involved in a bus crash without giving it a second thought. I suspect the frenzy over the prospect of a terrorist attack is largely media driven, however, when the emotion dies down in the next few weeks, so will a lot of the fear associated with it. I expect most people will then go back to living they way they were before this took place.
It should also be noted that here in Australia, it's estimated that bicycles out-sell cars by 3:1. However, you wouldn't know it looking at the streets during the commuting hours. Therefore the question we need to ask is: "where are all of these bicycles?". I get the feeling that the London experience will end up with a similar result. Hence those looking to promote transportational cycling as a solution to urban congestion/pollution problems should probably wait 3-6 months and see if all these bicycles being sold right now are still being ridden then. Somehow, I'm not sure they will be.
posted by Chris L @ 9:12 pm
5 Comments:
Absolutely agree.
I'm hoping that a small percentage of the 'knee jerk reaction' bike buyers will stick with it but unless they need to use their new bikes for an extended period, we know that it won't translate into a healthy new habit.
When petrol prices rocket we a smaller scale reaction as some commuters dump the car for a few days to ride a bike or take public transport. It doesn't last. People will go back to what's comfortable for them.
I think a big part of the problem is that so few of them will make the effort to learn anything about it. In even moderately sized cities, cycling is by far the most efficient transportational method of going anywhere remotely popular, and it's cheaper too.
However, I sense a lot of those who take it up will do so without giving any thought to how to deal with traffic, after all, "anyone can ride a bike, right?". I suspect a lot of them will end up having a more dramatic perception of the "dangers of cycling" than actually exists for those who have made the effort to educate themselves.
For one thing, these are hardly the circumstances under which I'd be gloating about increased bicycle sales or anything else. For another, has anybody considered the possibility that this is all just a knee-jerk reaction?
Hmm, but your post could be seen as a negative knee-jerk reaction. The bombings continue to be a developing story, the bicycle sales story was picked up as a positive human interest story.
So why the pointless rant? Go to Velorution for a first hand account. By the way, I'm bemused by your attitute. Do you actually participate in bicycle advocacy and awareness? Anyway, the tender age of 28 is far too young for a young chap to be bitter & twisted.
Life is a continual education, and you seemed to allowed yourself to become overwhelmed by social inertia. Change is inevitable.
Hmm, but your post could be seen as a negative knee-jerk reaction. The bombings continue to be a developing story, the bicycle sales story was picked up as a positive human interest story.
So why the pointless rant?
All I'm doing is injecting some perspective into the stories. One would assume that the "positive" angle in such a story is that those purchasing the bicycles might make the change toward utilising a tranport option that is cleaner, more efficient, healthier etc etc.
However, as a 365 day transportational cyclist (including riding through a flood a couple of weeks ago), I see a lot of people who start riding to work for a couple of days -- very few stick with it for any length of time. I suspect this boom will have the same result. All I'm really saying is let's wait 3-6 months so to get a clearer perspective on this.
Go to Velorution for a first hand account. By the way, I'm bemused by your attitute. Do you actually participate in bicycle advocacy and awareness?
There was a time when I did. However, to cut a long story short, I had some different ideas about cycling advocacy and what it needed, and I found that pretty much everyone else involved refused to even consider the possibilities of many of them (did someone mention "social inertia"?).
So now I just ride. I know things are less than perfect (after 10 years on the Gold Coast it's impossible to conclude anything else). I'll offer my assistance to others who want to take it up along the way, be it through offering advice or assisting in some other way, but I'm also realistic about the results.
In the end, if people don't want to do something, or aren't comfortable with it, they won't stick with it for any length of time. This is what it all comes back to.
Anyway, the tender age of 28 is far too young for a young chap to be bitter & twisted.
I prefer to think of it as "pragmatic". Believe me, I'd love to be wrong on this one, but I don't think I am.
Life is a continual education, and you seemed to allowed yourself to become overwhelmed by social inertia. Change is inevitable.
Yes, life is a continual education, the contents of the original post are the product of what that education has taught me.
I agree with Chris in that these bikes will never be used again after six months so expect to see them on sale in Ebay or your local flea market.
The transportation cyclist is a lifestyle change period. I don't agree you wake up one morning and decide you're going to make a change from auto dependancy to one of bike commuting. I suspose if the terrorist stuck each week, things might be different.
Since that is not the case, this might very well be a good time to pick up some bargains!
Dahon.Steve
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